Energy use of, and CO2 emissions from China’s urban passenger transportation sector – Carbon mitigation scenarios upon the transportation mode choices

• This paper estimates CO2 emissions from China’s urban passenger transportation.
• A “bottom-up” methodology is developed based upon passenger travel behaviors.
• Traffic optimization can reduce 21% of the transportation energy in 2030.
• Traffic plus urban optimization will reduce 43% of the transportation energy in 2030.

This paper estimates the energy consumption and CO2 emissions from China’s urban passenger transportation sector up to year 2030. A “bottom-up” methodology is developed to estimate the emissions based upon passenger travel behaviors in cities, which is notably different from popular existing approaches that calculate emissions from vehicular population. This methodology enables policy analysts to (1) quantify how different urban development strategies and patterns would affect about CO2 emissions; (2) directly link behavioral changes with urban development patterns and policies; and (3) analyze and understand the sensitivities of the urban passenger transportation sector in responding to both national- and city-level policies for carbon mitigation, thus helping the policy evaluation and development.Detailed information regarding urban passenger travels are collected in grouped Chinese cities of six categories. With the newly developed methodology, total carbon emissions from China’s urban passenger transportation sector under three scenarios are considered. The results showed that mode choice changes are the most sensitive to policies. Promoting public transportation and limiting car usage can contribute 21% of the total energy reduction of China’s transportation sector in 2030. Enhancing the above by optimizing street network and urban form, this contribution can be doubled in size.