An effective hybrid learning system for telecommunication churn prediction

• A hybrid model learning system for telecom customer churn prediction is proposed.
• The hybrid model integrates weighted k-means clustering and a rule induction method.
• The effectiveness of the proposed system is estimated using ROC, AUC and accuracy.
• The proposed system achieves superior prediction performance against other models.
• The proposed system can be widely applied in applications of different realms.

Customer churn has emerged as a critical issue for Customer Relationship Management and customer retention in the telecommunications industry, thus churn prediction is necessary and valuable to retain the customers and reduce the losses. Moreover, high predictive accuracy and good interpretability of the results are two key measures of a classification model. More studies have shown that single model-based classification methods may not be good enough to achieve a satisfactory result. To obtain more accurate predictive results, we present a novel hybrid model-based learning system, which integrates the supervised and unsupervised techniques for predicting customer behaviour. The system combines a modified k-means clustering algorithm and a classic rule inductive technique (FOIL).Three sets of experiments were carried out on telecom datasets. One set of the experiments is for verifying that the weighted k-means clustering can lead to a better data partitioning results; the second set of experiments is for evaluating the classification results, and comparing it to other well-known modelling techniques; the last set of experiment compares the proposed hybrid-model system with several other recently proposed hybrid classification approaches. We also performed a comparative study on a set of benchmarks obtained from the UCI repository. All the results show that the hybrid model-based learning system is very promising and outperform the existing models.