کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
385292 | 660864 | 2008 | 8 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
Forecasting the number of outpatient visits can help the expert of healthcare administration to make a strategic decision. If the number of outpatient visits could be forecast accurately, it would provide the administrators of healthcare with a basis to manage hospitals effectively, to make up a schedule for human resources and finances reasonably, and distribute hospital material resources suitably. This paper proposes a new fuzzy time series method, which is based on weighted-transitional matrix, also proposes two new forecasting methods: the Expectation Method and the Grade-Selection Method. From the verification and results, the proposed methods exhibit a relatively lower error rate in comparison to the listing methods, and could be more stable in facing the ever-changing future trends. The characteristics of the proposed methods could overcome the drawback of the insufficient handling of information to construct a forecasting rule in previous researches.
Journal: Expert Systems with Applications - Volume 34, Issue 4, May 2008, Pages 2568–2575