کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
385622 660869 2011 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A hybrid forecasting model for enrollments based on aggregated fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر هوش مصنوعی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A hybrid forecasting model for enrollments based on aggregated fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization
چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper, a new forecasting model based on two computational methods, fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization, is presented for academic enrollments. Most of fuzzy time series forecasting methods are based on modeling the global nature of the series behavior in the past data. To improve forecasting accuracy of fuzzy time series, the global information of fuzzy logical relationships is aggregated with the local information of latest fuzzy fluctuation to find the forecasting value in fuzzy time series. After that, a new forecasting model based on fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization is developed to adjust the lengths of intervals in the universe of discourse. From the empirical study of forecasting enrollments of students of the University of Alabama, the experimental results show that the proposed model gets lower forecasting errors than those of other existing models including both training and testing phases.

Research highlights
► A new forecasting model based on fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization is developed.
► The lengths of intervals are adjustable in the universe of discourse.
► The proposed model gets lower forecasting errors than those of other existing models.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Expert Systems with Applications - Volume 38, Issue 7, July 2011, Pages 8014–8023
نویسندگان
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