Developing a supply chain disruption analysis model: Application of colored Petri-nets

As a result of globalization in the past two decades, supply chains are encountering more unknown conditions and risks. One important category of risks is disruptions that block material flowing through a supply chain and that may even result in end-product manufacturing failure. This paper uses a Petri nets-based model as a tool to understand the dissemination of disruptions and to trace the operational performance of a supply chain. The presented approach models how changes propagate through a supply chain and calculates the impact of disruptions on supply chain attributes by concluding the states that are obtainable from a given initial status in the supply chain.

► Tracing the dissemination of multiple disruptions is possible by proposed model.
► The interrelationships of disruptions are considered in the proposed approach.
► Matrix-based calculation for CPNs is proposed in a novel way.
► The application of model is illustrated through an empirical study.