Wind speed modeling using a vector autoregressive process with a time-dependent intercept term

• A time series model is presented to analyze wind speeds in multiple locations.
• A semi-parametric distribution is fitted for each individual location.
• A vector autoregressive model with a time-dependent intercept term is used.
• Both the spatial and temporal dependencies are considered in detail.
• Applications for the risk assessment of power systems are presented.

The effect of wind power on the electric power system is becoming increasingly important as more wind power is installed. This paper presents a Vector-Autoregressive-To-Anything (VARTA) process with a time-dependent intercept to model wind speeds in multiple locations. The model considers both temporal and spatial dependency structures in detail. It can be used in Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of very high or low wind speeds occurring in multiple locations at the same time and during consecutive hours. The long term simulation and short term forecasting results are assessed using measurements from 21 locations in Finland. A discussion on the applicability of the presented wind speed simulation method for the risk assessment of power systems is given.