کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
400268 | 1438806 | 2007 | 6 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Non-parametric short-term load forecasting Non-parametric short-term load forecasting](/preview/png/400268.png)
Load forecasting is an important problem in the operation and planning of electrical power generation, as well as in transmission and distribution networks. This paper is interested by short-term load forecasting. It deals with the development of a reliable and efficient Kernel regression model to forecast the load in the Hydro Québec distribution network.A set of past load history comprising of weather information and load consumption is used. A non-parametric model serves to establish a relationship among past, current and future temperatures and the system loads. The paper proposes a class of flexible conditional probability models and techniques for classification and regression problems. A group of regression models is used, each one focusing on consumer classes characterising specific load behaviour. Each forecasting process has the information of the past 300 h and yields estimated loads for next 120 h. Numerical investigations show that the suggested technique is an efficient way of computing forecast statistics.
Journal: International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems - Volume 29, Issue 8, October 2007, Pages 630–635