A new approach of point estimate method for probabilistic load flow

This paper analyses the power system load flow using new point estimate method considering uncertainties, which may happen in the power system. These uncertainties may arise from different sources, such as load demands or generation unit outages. A novel probabilistic load flow based on new point estimate method has been proposed in this paper. The proposed method surpasses the previous point estimate methods when generalizing the approach to multiple random variables with various probabilistic distributions. Addressing the results of Monte Carlo simulation method as reference, the new point estimate method is applied to IEEE 14-bus test system and the advantages of this new method have been presented. The results reveal that the proposed point estimate method has less computational burden and time comparing than Monte Carlo simulation method while the accuracy remains at a high level.

► A new method for probabilistic load flow studies has been presented.
► A new point estimation method has been proposed.
► The proposed method can be used in a large power system with many random variables.
► In the proposed method the estimating points are independent of the random.