Pediatric primary care services in Manitoba: Is the health of the next generation of children at risk?

ObjectivesPhysician resource planning is an important part of health policy, but to date there are no studies measuring the primary care service needs of a particular population. The aim of this study was to project the expected provision of physician services for the pediatric population of one Canadian province for 2020.MethodsA novel standardized measure of physician service provision, the equivalent services measure, was developed using mathematical modeling. Population projections and past use of services were used to calculate the projected service needs for the pediatric population of Manitoba.ResultsDespite projecting a small increase in the pediatric population (2.8%), our model predicted a decrease of 13.4% in the services that would be provided.ConclusionsThe findings of this study indicate that the health of future generations of children may be at risk. Further research is needed to determine the effect of the reduction in pediatric service provision on the health of the pediatric population.