The Rate of Decline of Glomerular Filtration Rate Is a Predictor of Long-term Graft Outcome After Kidney Transplantation

BackgroundTo improve the long-term outcome of kidney transplantation (KT), it is important to identify and take active steps to reduce the number or severity of novel risk factors. We investigated whether changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate over the first year after KT (ΔeGFR12-3) was associated with long-term renal allograft function and survival.MethodsFour hundred twenty-eight allograft recipients transplanted between 1990 and 2001 underwent ΔeGFR12-3 calculation using the equation: ΔeGFR12-3 = ([eGFR at 12 months post-KT − eGFR at 3 months post-KT]/[eGFR at 3 months post-KT]) × 100%. Recipients were divided into 3 groups according to their ΔeGFR12-3: group I (n = 150), ΔeGFR12-3 ≥ 10%; group II (n = 151), 10 > ΔeGFR12-3 ≥ −10%; and group III (n = 127), ΔeGFR12-3 < −10%. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to adjust for confounding variables that may affect long-term renal allograft function, and Kaplan-Meier analysis, to compare allograft survival.ResultsAt a mean follow-up of 120 ± 58 months, we observed 112 renal allograft losses. The ΔeGFR over 10 years post-KT (ΔeGFR120-3) was significantly associated with the serum uric acid levels at 3 months post-transplantation and ΔeGFR12-3. Group III showed poor renal allograft survival; group I, 194 ± 8 months; group II, 197 ± 7 month and; group III, 163 ± 4 months; (log-rank test, P < .05). A Cox proportional hazard model revealed ΔeGFR12-3 to be independently associated with future renal allograft loss (hazard ratio, 0.981; 95% confidence interval, 0.974–0.992).ConclusionOur results suggested that ΔeGFR12-3 may be an independent predictor of kidney allograft survival. Routine application of eGFR is strongly recommended to identify patients at risk for chronic allograft dysfunction.