کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4280172 1611552 2010 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Development of a simple model for predicting need for surgery in patients who initially undergo conservative management for adhesive small bowel obstruction
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم پزشکی و سلامت پزشکی و دندانپزشکی عمل جراحی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Development of a simple model for predicting need for surgery in patients who initially undergo conservative management for adhesive small bowel obstruction
چکیده انگلیسی

BackgroundAmong patients with adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) initially managed with a conservative strategy, predicting risk of operation is difficult.MethodsWe investigated ASBO patients at 2 different periods to derive and validate a clinical prediction model for risk of operation.ResultsOne hundred fifty-four patients were enrolled into the derivation cohort and 96 into the validation cohort. Based on the derived scoring, including age ≥65 years, presence of ascites, and gastrointestinal drainage volume >500 mL on day 3, each patient was classified into 1 of 4 risk classes from low risk to high risk. When applied to the validation cohort, the positive predictive value (PPV) for operation in the high-risk class was 72%, while the negative predictive value (NPV) in the low-risk class was 100% with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (96%).ConclusionsThe prediction model performs well for risk stratification of need for surgical intervention following conservative strategy among ASBO patients.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: The American Journal of Surgery - Volume 200, Issue 2, August 2010, Pages 215–223
نویسندگان
, , , , ,