Development of a model describing the effect of temperature, water activity and (gel) structure on growth and ochratoxin A production by Aspergillus carbonarius in vitro and evaluation in food matrices of different viscosity

The present study aimed: (i) to develop models for the combined effect of water activity (0.99, 0.94 and 0.90), microstructure expressed as 0, 5, 10 and 20% w/v gelatin, and temperature (15, 20 and 25 °C), on growth and OTA production rates by Aspergillus carbonarius; and (ii) to evaluate the performance of the developed models on food matrices (jelly, custard and marmalade) of different viscosity at pH 5.5. The square root of biomass increase rate (fungal growth rate) and OTA production rate were determined by the Baranyi model and were further modeled as a function of temperature, gelatin concentration and aw by applying polynomial models. Time for visible growth and the upper asymptote of the OTA production curve were also determined by the Baranyi model. Increase in gelatin concentration resulted in a significant delay in all parameters describing fungal growth and OTA production rates, at all temperatures and aw. The effect of microstructure on fungal growth and OTA production rates was less evident at stress conditions of aw and temperature. Detection time for visible fungal growth was markedly influenced by aw and temperature. Coefficients of determination were 0.899 and 0.887 for the models predicting the square root (μmax) of growth and OTA production rate, respectively. Predictions of growth rate agreed well with the recorded data of custard and marmalade, while observations of OTA production rate indicated low agreement with model predictions, in all food matrices except for marmalade. The present findings may provide a basis for reliable assessment of the risk of fungal growth and OTA production in foods of different structural and rheological properties.