Modelling the effect of temperature and water activity on the growth rate and growth/no growth interface of Byssochlamys fulva and Byssochlamys nivea

The purpose of the present study was to apply a modelling approach to define the growth rate and growth/no growth interface of Byssochlamys fulva and Byssochlamys nivea on a synthetic medium as a function of temperature and water activity. Both fungal species were grown on malt extract agar at different temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 °C) and aw levels (0.88, 0.90, 0.92, 0.94, 0.96 and 0.99) for a period of 30 days. Growth responses were evaluated over time in terms of colony diameter changes. Growth data were fitted to the primary model of Baranyi and the resulting growth rates were further modeled as a function of temperature and water activity using the cardinal model with inflection (CMI) (Rosso et al., 1993). A logistic regression quadratic polynomial model was also employed to predict the probability of growth over storage time. Estimated parameters for minimum, maximum and optimum temperatures for growth were 9.1 °C, 46.4 °C and 32.1 °C for B. fulva and 10.5 °C, 43.2 °C and 32.1 °C for B. nivea. The respective values for aw were 0.893, 0.993 and 0.985 for B. fulva and 0.892, 0.992 and 0.984 for B. nivea. No growth was observed at 0.88 aw regardless of temperature for both species, whereas B. nivea ascospores could not grow at 10 and 45 °C irrespective of aw. Regarding growth boundaries, the degree of agreement between predictions and observations was >98% concordant for both species. The erroneously predicted growth cases were 1.4–4.2% false positive and 2.1–3.5% false negative for B. nivea and B. fulva, respectively. The developed logistic model was validated with two literature data sets as well as with data from independent experiments carried out on fruit juices. Validation results showed that agreement with literature data for growth was 25 out of 36 (69.4%) cases, whereas validation on fruit juice data failed in only 6 cases (5 false positives and 1 false negative) out of 128 cases.