Just passing through: Global change and the conservation of biodiversity in protected areas

Climate and land-use changes are expected to cause many species to shift into or beyond the boundaries of protected areas, leading to large turnover in species composition. Here, we tested whether long-established protected areas in Canada were more robust to such climate change impacts than areas with no formal protection by measuring changes in modeled butterfly species distributions (n = 139) within them. We used a recently established distribution modeling technique, Maxent, to model butterfly species’ distributions in two epochs (1900–1930 and 1960–1990). We compared rates of butterfly species richness and composition change within protected areas against distributions of randomly selected, ecologically similar, but non-protected, areas. Change in species richness and composition within protected areas were, for the most part, the same as changes observed among random areas outside protected area boundaries. These results suggest that existing protected area networks in Canada have provided little buffer against the impacts of climate change on butterfly species richness, possibly because land-use change surrounding long-standing protected areas has not been substantial enough to elevate the habitat protection afforded by these protected areas relative to other areas. Although protected areas are unarguably beneficial in conserving biological diversity, their capacity to maintain habitat appears insufficient to prevent broader-scale climate changes from sweeping species beyond their boundaries.