Population impacts of endangered short-tailed albatross bycatch in the Alaskan trawl fishery

We conduct a decision analysis that explores the effects of trawl-related fishery mortality on achieving the population recovery goals for the US federally-endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus), proposed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service. A population model is constructed and its parameters estimated using data on counts of the numbers of albatross chicks and eggs at Torishima Island, Japan, where 83% of the world's population of this species is found. Bayesian inference is used to assign probabilities to alternative plausible rates of fishing mortality and as the basis for population projections with different levels of trawl mortality to determine their effects on achieving the population recovery goals. The analyses of the impact of trawl mortality on the Torishima short-tailed albatross population suggests that exceeding the current expected incidental take in the Alaskan groundfish trawl fishery, two in any 5-year period, by as much as a factor of 10 would have little impact on when the proposed recovery goals for the species are achieved. A quantitative approach that addresses uncertainty, such as that outlined in this study, could aid the process to evaluate allowable limits in light of species recovery goals by addressing both take limits and recovery goals within the same framework.