Trends in productivity and biomass yields in the Mediterranean Sea Large Marine Ecosystem during climate change

• Briefly describe climate change in the Mediterranean Sea LME.
• Review various signals of climate on Mediterranean fisheries.
• Discuss habitat alterations in response to climate change based on existing habitat models.
• Present forecasts of a 3D full life cycle model for European anchovy in the Mediterranean Sea.

In this essay we briefly describe climate change in the Mediterranean Sea Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) using different indices. We further describe the evolution of yearly catches and species composition of the catches in the West (W), Central (C), and East (E) Mediterranean LME during 1970–2010 and the exploitation status of the fisheries resources and review various signals of climate on Mediterranean fisheries. In addition, we explore the mean temperature of the catch in the W, C and E Mediterranean under a scenario considering the catches of species migrating through the Suez Canal. We further review the existing habitat modeling studies at the Mediterranean scale of various species and discuss their response to climate change. Finally, we present the development of a 3-D full life cycle population model and the respective model forecasts of European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) biomass at the Mediterranean Sea LME scale.