A multi-scaled analysis of the effect of climate, commodity prices and risk on the livelihoods of Mongolian pastoralists

• Empirical decision tree models interactions between climate, prices and returns.
• Nuances of pastoralists' decisions and risk management strategies revealed through semi-structured interviews.
• Returns depend not only on climate and prices but are also influenced by pastoralists' decisions.
• Multi-scaled social, economic and climatic factors constrain decisions.
• Greater institutional exclusivity would increase the risks of resource gaps.

Studies of common pool resources tend to neglect how aspects of the resource system interact with the external social, physical and institutional environment. We test the hypothesis that select market and non-market based options available to Mongolian Gobi Desert pastoralists in the current instiutional setting are not sufficient to ameliorate the risks of resource gaps caused by climatic and commodity price variability. An empirical decision tree was used to model interactions between climatic variability, commodity price volatility and economic returns. Results from the model were then discussed in light of a critical, qualitative analysis of risk management strategies and capabilities of pastoralists. Returns to pastoralists were dependent upon climate and commodity prices, as expected, but pastoralist decision-making could influence these returns. Pastoralist decision-making was further influenced by multi-scaled social, economic and climatic factors. Existing market-based options available to Mongolian Gobi Desert pastoralists reduced price, but not production, risks in this largely subsistent system. A focus on improving market-based options for reducing risk is likely to provide more benefits to livelihoods and landscape condition than modifying institutional settings governing access to the forage resource.