Effects of overgrazing and rainfall variability on the dynamics of semiarid banded vegetation patterns: A simulation study with cellular automata

The effects of factors acting at small scale (grass/grass and grass/shrub biological interactions) and landscape scale (overgrazing and rainfall changes) on the development and permanence of banded vegetation patterns (VB) are assessed with a spatially explicit cellular automaton model. In particular, the influence of two environmental factors that are changing in many VB arid lands (rainfall and grazing pressures) is studied. Three rainfall regimes (representing 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 times the long-term rainfall average), five grazing intensities, two types (reversible and irreversible) of grazing disturbance, two grazing periodicities (chronic and pulse), two levels of grass colonization ability, positive and negative interactions between shrubs and grasses, and the efficiency of endozoochorous seed dispersal are simulated.The results show that the permanence of undisturbed VB depends on the interaction of two factors, rainfall regime and grass colonization ability. Type and intensity of grazing also modify VB cover and permanence; furthermore, long-term overgrazing may convert mixed grass/shrub plant communities to pure scrublands dominated by endozoochorous-dispersed shrubs due to competitive interactions between shrubs and grasses.Besides providing an adequate representation of the system’s dynamics, the model is a useful tool that may be used to explore the consequences of climate change on management scenarios.

Research highlights
► Under moderate grazing vegetation-bands depend on rainfall regime and grass colonization ability.
► Chronic overgrazing can destroy vegetation-band patterning.
► Shrubs (particularly if endozoochorously dispersed) replace grasses after long term overgrazing.