Frankincense yield assessment and modeling in closed and grazed Boswellia papyrifera woodlands of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Boswellia papyrifera, a frankincense producing tree, grows in the arid lowlands of Ethiopia. It is a multipurpose tree species with ecological, environmental, cultural and socio-economic values. The resource has been declining due to unsustainable management. This study is aimed at estimating frankincense yield in a single production year, assessing the relationship between yield and dendrometric variables, and developing predictive yield models. We collected data of one harvesting season from randomly selected sample trees in an exclosure and a free grazing site. We found strong nonlinear relations between yield and dendrometric variables, which are useful for predictive yield modeling. A stepwise linear regression indicated that the yield from the sixth round of tapping could explain about 88% of the variation in annual yield per tree, a finding that can largely facilitate future yield monitoring. The frankincense yield was larger in the exclosure than in the adjacent free grazing site and the difference was statistically significant. To conclude, management of degraded B. papyrifera forest as exclosures should be strengthened to enhance the economic, environmental and cultural benefits from the species. Their effectiveness should be evaluated through yield monitoring and prediction.