Habitat availability for multiple avian species under modeled alternative conservation scenarios in the Two Hearted River watershed in Michigan, USA

Due to differences in the responses of species to changing landscape patterns, developing a conservation plan with an optimal outcome of supporting contrasting habitat needs can be difficult. Landscape scenario modeling can provide a means to compare alternative conservation strategies and can reveal tradeoffs of managing for one objective versus another. In order to evaluate the impacts of alternative conservation strategies in a 53,653 ha landscape in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, four scenarios of alternative conservation strategies were modeled 100 years into the future using the VDDT®/TELSA® spatial model suite, and habitat availability was evaluated for five target bird species of local conservation concern under each scenario. The target species were Dendroica fusca (Blackburnian Warbler), Picoides arcticus (Black-backed Woodpecker), Dendroica kirtlandii (Kirtland's Warbler), Buteo lineatus (Red-shouldered Hawk), and Scolopax minor (American Woodcock). Scenarios were ranked based on relative performance of three habitat metric results (total primary habitat area, average size of habitat patches, and average distance to the nearest neighboring habitat patch) for each species. The final overall rank for each scenario was generally related to harvest intensity; the scenario with the smallest total area of even-aged management ranked the highest. Ranks were not consistent across all response variables. Relative species sensitivity was also evaluated, and the ranks did not match expectations, with the more habitat generalist species showing the highest sensitivity and the most specialist species showing the lowest. The approach here provides a means of projecting and comparing potential long-term impacts of alternative landscape strategies on diverse wildlife habitats. These results, when considered with budget considerations and species’ habitat area and population goals, can assist local managers and stakeholders in conservation planning by identifying tradeoffs and compromises aimed at optimizing protection for a variety of target species.