Spatial Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Northeast Thailand

It is well recognized that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is widely used for any extreme events. This notion is based on the study of discrete choice behavior, however, there is a limit for predicting the distribution at ungauged sites. Hence, there has been studies on spatial dependence within extreme events in continuous space using recorded observations. We model the annual maximum daily rainfall data consisting of 25 locations for the period from 1982 to 2013. The spatial GEV model that is established under observations is assumed to be mutually independent because there is no spatial dependency between the stations. Further, we divide the region into two regions for a better model fit and identify the best model for each region. We show that the regional spatial GEV model reflects the spatial pattern well compared to the spatial GEV model over the entire region as the local GEV distribution. The advantage of spatial extreme modeling is that more robust return levels and some indices of extreme rainfall can be obtained for observed stations as well as for locations without observed data. Thus, the model helps to determine the effects and assessment of vulnerability due to heavy rainfall in northeast Thailand.