Stochastic Models Describing Subdivision of Building Lots

A large number of subdivisions of building lots has been observed in established city areas. Subdivisions of standard lots into smaller parcels could cause serious problems in citywide disasters, such as a devastating earthquake, as well as environmental deterioration. Investigation of the mechanism of such subdivisions is thus imperative for discussing sustainable cities. In the present study, we construct stochastic models that describe the process of dividing building lots and forming smaller parcels. Unknown parameters of the models are estimated using GIS data compiled by a local government in Tokyo, and factors related to the subdivisions are examined. Numerical examples demonstrate that the possibility and probability of lot subdivisions mainly depend on the location and properties of lots.