Simulation Modelling of the System “Vegetation Cover – Domestic Reindeer” in the Yamal Peninsula: Could Global Warming Help to Save the Traditional Way of Land Use?

Terrestrial ecosystems of the Yamal Peninsula were subjected to the impact of domestic reindeer for several decades: the reindeer husbandry was extensively developed in the traditional nomadic way during the past century and especially recently. The ecosystem dynamics was analyzed by means of computer simulations. It was shown that nomadic reindeer husbandry is the primary cause of the observed degradation of vegetative and lichens cover. Dramatic changes in both productivity and standing crop characteristics indicate the impossibility of keeping on this way of land use under the present industrial and climatic situation in the region. Warming must be fantastically rapid for improving the present situation; global warming seems to be not a sufficient factor for restoration of forage resources in Yamal.The general question we tried to answer was: if global warming (the signs of which seems to be detected since the end of 1950s) may serve as a favoring factor of indigenous manner of land use or not? In the model we supposed that production (per year) of vegetation (lichens mainly) would exponentially increase with the growth of mean ambient temperature. Several model experiments were carried on in the attempt to determine what rate of such changes would be sufficient for keeping the number of reindeer at the modern level (ca. 350000 individuals) without degradation of vegetation. The model experiments showed that these changes have to be much faster that one can reasonably imagine. Therefore, in spite of wide-spread cliché, traditional nomadic reindeer husbandry is not an example of human and vegetation coexistence in harmony at all. Even more, the existent exponential growth of domestic reindeer herds seems to be more dangerous for the natural complexes in the region, than, say, the development of oil and gas industry. The present situation requires significant corrections in ethno-cultural and economical policy in the region, and global worming would not improve the alarming situation.