Using Logistic Regression and GIS to Analyze the Relationship between Precipitation and Debris Flow in Sichuan, China

Debris flow is a serious disaster that frequently happens in Sichuan province China. The relationship between precipitation and debris flow is one of the important components of prediction research. We chose the geographic information system (GIS) as a tool to estimate the precipitation of hazard point and used statistical techniques to calculate attenuation coefficient of effective antecedent precipitation. With such methodologies, the logistic regression model was used to comparatively analyze the contribution rate of two types precipitation combination: 1) intraday rainfall and 10-day previous rainfall, 2) intraday rainfall and effective antecedent rainfall. Our results indicate that the contribution rate of intraday rainfall is the highest and that the category coincidence rate of second type precipitation is 3% higher than the first.