Using agent-based modeling to depict basin closure in the Naivasha basin, Kenya: a framework of analysis

A spatially-explicit agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is applied for depicting the processes leading to basin closure in the Naivasha basin by representing interdependencies between water availability and water use. Modeling the dynamics of water use and water availability yields patterns of their distribution over space and time. The approach allows for exploring the potential effectiveness of governance alternatives such as payment for environmental services (PES) schemes. This study shows that ABM is a promising approach for supporting water governance and can assist in increasing the understanding of the occurrence of basin closure.