Spatio-temporal analysis of farm termination in animal husbandry in the Netherlands in the period 1997-2006 and implications for the future

In the Netherlands there is a steady decrease of the number of farms in time. In this study, spatial data collected between 1997 to 2006 where used to analyse the viability of pig and poultry (P4) and cattle (P5) farms in the Netherlands in order to find out which structural features and spatial characteristics play a role in the survival of farms. In this study several steps were taken to find out which factors influences a farmer the most to terminate or change his business. A comparison of the spatial- and non-spatial characteristics was made between farms that stop their activities and farms who continue their business. Statistical testing was carried out to see if there are significant differences between the characteristics of stopping and none stopping farmers. Matrices with probabilities that a farm will stop were prepared to evaluate the implications for the future on the basis of different levels of structural and spatial farms characteristics. Finally a cluster analysis on the stopping farms in P4 and P5 sector was carried out to find out if clustering of these farms could be detected. Clustering was done on municipality level.