Cloud rise model for radiological dispersal devices events

As a part of the preparedness and response to possible radiological terror events, it is important to model the evolution of the radioactive cloud immediately after its formation, as a function of time, explosive quantity and local meteorological conditions. One of the major outputs of a cloud rise models is the evaluation of cloud top height, which is an essential input for most of the succeeding atmospheric dispersion models. This parameter strongly affects the radiological consequences of the event. Most of the cloud rise models used today, have been developed according to experiments were large quantities of explosives were used, within the range of hundreds of kilograms of TNT. The majority of these models, however, fail to address Radiological Dispersion Devices (RDD) events, which are typically characterized by smaller amounts of TNT. In this paper, a new, semi-empirical model that describes the vertical evolution of the cloud up to its effective height as a function of time, explosive quantity, atmospheric stability and horizontal wind speed, is presented. The database for this model is taken from five sets of experiments done in Israel during 2006–2009 under the “Green Field” (GF) project, using 0.25–100 kg of TNT.

► We present a new model for the explosion cloud rise creating following a RDD event.
► The new model predicts the final cloud top height (“the effective height”).
► Model parameters are: explosive amount, time, atmospheric stability and horizontal wind intensity.
► The predicted cloud top heights are different than those predicted by others.
► The new predictions have radiological consequences for both, first and later responders.