Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006–2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO2) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO2 in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011–2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO2 and NOx emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO2 control scenario, and the 2010 NOx control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.