Modelling PM10 concentrations and carrying capacity associated with woodheater emissions in Launceston, Tasmania

Launceston is one of the Australian cities most affected by particle pollution due to the use of woodheaters in the winter months, with frequent exceedences of the national standard, the National Environment Protection Measure for Ambient Air Quality (or Air NEPM in short), of 50 micrograms per cubic metre for daily PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less). The main objective of the present study was to determine the woodheater carrying capacity for Launceston—the number of woodheaters that can operate in the city without exceeding the Air NEPM. For this purpose, a prognostic meteorological and air pollution model called TAPM is used, coupled to a gridded woodheater PM10 emissions inventory. The latter was derived using information on dwelling density, the percentage of dwellings with woodheaters, woodheater emission rates and their diurnal and seasonal variations, and the proportions of compliant/non-compliant woodheaters and open fireplaces. The model simulations are performed for the year 1998, and the concentrations are scaled for previous and subsequent years using trends in woodheater numbers and types. The modelled number of exceedences of the Air NEPM for the period 1997–2004 is in good agreement with the observations. The modelling indicates that the PM10 Air NEPM would be met in Launceston when the total number of woodheaters is 20% of the total number of dwellings, of which 76%, 18%, 6% would be compliant woodheaters, non-compliant woodheaters and open fireplaces, respectively. With the present trends in the regional woodheater profile, this should occur in the year 2007.