Rising minimum temperature trends over India in recent decades: Implications for agricultural production

• Annual minimum temperature over 52.7% of India showed warming @ 0.24 °C /decade.
• Warming during rabi (Oct-Mar) was faster than kharif (June-Oct) by 0.09 °C /decade.
• Yields of 57.2% kharif paddy area were influenced by rise in minimum temperature.
• District kharif paddy yields of 1971-2009 period declined by 411 to 859 kg/ha/ °C rise.

The success of kharif crops in India is largely dependent on the performance of South west monsoon, whereas the rabi crops which are largely irrigated are sensitive to changes in temperature. Trends in minimum temperature for the period 1971–2009 were analyzed using 0.5° grid data for annual, kharif and rabi cropping seasons at the district level. Annual mean minimum temperature showed warming @ 0.24° 10 yr− 1 on all India basis. Large area (52.7% in kharif, 54.9% in rabi) showed strong and significant warming trend. The magnitude of rise in seasonal mean temperatures is more during rabi (0.28 °C 10 yr−1 ) compared to kharif (0.19 °C 10 yr−1 ). Kharif paddy yields in 268 districts across the country (57.2% of paddy growing area) were influenced by a rise in minimum temperature. Declines in kharif paddy yield ranged between 411 and 859 kg ha−1  per 1 °C rise in minimum temperature across regions. This warming trend is likely to continue with significant implication on crop yields and calls for development of suitable adaptation strategies to sustain production.