Index for hazard of Glacier Lake Outburst flood of Lake Merzbacher by satellite-based monitoring of lake area and ice cover

Previous studies show that the area of a moraine-dammed lake can provide a good indicator of the significance of its outburst. For a glacier-dammed lake however, because its area and depth fluctuates with the melting of its ice dam, it is difficult to predict the outburst of the glacier‐dammed lake by using its area alone.A characteristic of the surface of Lake Merzbacher is a large amount of floating ice therefore, a method is proposed in this article to extract the area of floating ice on the lake and the area of ice free water in the lake by using Environment and Disaster Monitoring Small Satellite images respectively. Furthermore, based on the area of floating ice extracted through the image information of Lake Merzbacher in 2009 and 2010, we determined the relationship between the ice area and the outburst of the lake, then formulated the Index for hazard of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (IGLOF) of Lake Merzbacher, which cannot only predict the flood outburst, but also determine the specific outburst period after the lake drainage had occurred. This can be shown in a recalculation of the lake drainages in the years 2009 and 2010. Research results indicate that when IGLOF is less than 0.5 and the lake area is larger than 3 km2, the outburst process is in early-warning period and GLOF will occur in the next 5–8 days. Also, the successful outburst prediction of Lake Merzbacher in 2011 showed that the index described in this paper provides a quick methodology for forecasting and warning against Lake Merzbacher outburst floods. However，as our research was based on a short observation period (2009-2011) and also cannot be supplemented by other images, it will still be needed to be checked and validated by continuous observation and improvement in future.

► We extract the area of floating ice of Lake Merzbacher.
► We determine the relationship between the ice area and the outburst of the lake.
► We formulate the Index for hazard of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood of Lake Merzbacher.
► The index can predict the flood outburst.
► The index can determine the specific outburst period after the drainage of the lake.