Dynamical downscaling of climate change in Central Asia

• Regional dynamical downscaling in Central Asia.
• Added value of regional climate models in Central Asian areas.
• Simulation shows above-global-average warming, especially during winter.
• Precipitation changes in summer heterogenous.
• Precipitation change in winter: increase in the northern, decrease in southern part.

The high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) REMO has been implemented over the region of Central Asia, including western China. A model run forced by reanalysis data (1/2° resolution), and two runs forced by a GCM (one run with 1/2° and one run with 1/6° resolution) have been realized. The model has been evaluated regarding its ability to simulate the mean climate of the period 1971–2000. It has been found that the spatial pattern of mean temperature and precipitation is simulated well by REMO. The REMO simulations are often closer to observational data than reanalysis data are, and show considerably higher spatial detail. The GCM-forced simulations extend to the year 2100 under the A1B scenario. The climate change signal of temperature is largest in winter in the northern part of the study area and over mountainous terrain. A warming up to 7 °C is projected until the end of the 21st century. In summer, warming is strongest over the southern part of Central Asia. Changes in precipitation are spatially more heterogeneous.