High positive correlation between soil temperature and NDVI from 1982 to 2006 in alpine meadow of the Three-River Source Region on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Using satellite-observed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) method, we analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation during growing seasons from May to September in the Three-River Source Region, alpine meadow in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2006. We found that NDVI in the centre and east of the region, where the vegetation cover is low, showed a consistent but slight increase before 2003 and remarkable increase in 2004 and 2005. Impact factors analysis indicted that among air temperature, precipitation, humid index, soil surface temperature, and soil temperature at 10 cm and 20 cm depth, annual variation of NDVI was highly positive correlated with the soil surface temperature of the period from March to July. Further analysis revealed that the correlation between the vegetation and temperature was insignificant before 1995, but statistically significant from 1995. The study indicates that temperature is the major controlling factor of vegetation change in the Three-River Source Region, and the currently increase of temperature may increase vegetation coverage and/or density in the area. In addition, ecological restoration project started from 2005 in Three-River Source Region has a certain role in promoting the recovery of vegetation.

Research highlights
► We examine the changes of alpine meadow NDVI for 1982–2006 in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
► It shows a consistent but slight increase before 2003 and notable increase after then.
► Increase in soil surface temperature from March to July may increase NDVI.
► Temperature is the major factor for vegetation change in Three-River Source Region.
► Ecological restoration project has a certain role in promoting recovery of vegetation.