Analysis and reduction of the uncertainty of the assessment of children's lead exposure around an old mine

Exposure to lead is a special problem in children, because they are more highly exposed than adults and because this pollutant, which accumulates in the body, induces neurobehavioral and cognitive effects. The objective of this study was to determine the probability density of the lead exposure dose of a 2-year-old child around an old mine site and to analyze its uncertainties, especially those associated with the bioavailability of lead in soil. Children's exposure was estimated indirectly from environmental samples (soils, domestic dust, water, air) and parameters (volume inhaled, body weight, soil intake rate, water intake, dietary intake) from the literature. Uncertainty and variability were analyzed separately in a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation with Crystal Ball® software. Exposure doses were simulated with different methods for accessing the bioavailability of lead in soil.The exposure dose per kilogram of body weight varied from 2 μg/kg day at the 5th percentile to 5.5 μg/kg day at the 95th percentile (and from 2 to 10 μg/kg day, respectively, when ignoring bioavailability). The principal factors of variation were dietary intake, soil concentrations, and soil ingestion. The principal uncertainties were associated with the level of soil ingestion and the bioavailability of lead. Reducing uncertainty about the bioavailability of lead in soil by taking into account information about the type of mineral made it possible to increase our degree of confidence (from 25% to more than 95%) that the median exposure dose does not exceed the Tolerable Daily Intake. Knowledge of the mineral very substantially increases the degree of confidence in estimates of children's lead exposure around an old mining site by reducing the uncertainty associated with lead's bioavailability.