Individual-based models in the analysis of disease transmission in plant production chains: An application to potato brown rot

Model outputs of simulations based on the control strategy as applied in the Netherlands until 2004 are presented. The effects of minor adjustments to this strategy are investigated. The simulations show an irregular pattern of brown rot dynamics in the potato production chain, as is observed in practice. Simulations quantify the relative importance of different infection pathways, and elucidate the effect of testing frequency on these pathways and on the over-all brown rot incidence. The study shows that individual-based modelling (IBM) provides a powerful platform for modelling the epidemiology and impact of diseases in plant production chains. IBM can be effectively used for the analysis, evaluation and design of cost-effective disease management policies.