GEPIC – modelling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale

With population growth and economic development, the agricultural sector is facing the challenge to produce more food with less water. Crop water productivity (CWP) is important for understanding water–food relationships. It also provides a basis for the assessment of water use efficiency embodied in global food trade. However, traditional methods are not sufficient for estimating CWP on a global scale considering large spatial and temporal variations across different geographical locations. In this paper, a GIS-based EPIC model (GEPIC) is developed and tested to estimate wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield and CWP at a grid resolution of 30′ on the land surface. A comparison between simulated yields and FAO statistical yields in 102 countries over 10 years shows a good agreement. The simulated CWP is also mostly in line with the CWP reported in the literature.The simulation results show that compared with rainfed wheat, irrigated wheat has higher frequencies for high CWP (>0.8 kg m−3) and lower frequencies for low CWP (<0.8 kg m−3). This is likely because irrigation can provide timely water supply to crop development and the management of irrigated crops is usually more intensive than in rainfed production. A strong linear relation is found between CWP and yield. High wheat yield and CWP appear in the European countries, especially those in western and northern Europe. Low wheat yield and CWP are seen in most African countries. The simulation using GEPIC, however, shows that wheat yield and CWP in many African countries could increase substantially with sufficient water supply and fertilizer application. Variations in CWP across countries suggest that global water use could be reduced through food trade. Calculations indicate a saving of 77 × 109 m3 of water in 2000 through international wheat trade as a result of relatively high CWP in major exporting countries. However, the simulation results also suggest that an overall improvement in CWP through better crop management practices in local areas could make a greater contribution to the reduction in global water use.