Africa and the Green Revolution A Global Historical Perspective

• This article explores historical barriers to African agricultural intensification.
• We argue that Africa is currently undergoing a structural break with history.
• Physical distances are shortening, urban markets are expanding.
• Information and communication costs have dropped dramatically.
• Macro-economic conditions are much better than 20 years ago.

Two decades of substantial economic growth in Africa have challenged the deep-seated Afro-pessimism of the 1990s and 2000s and re-invigorated the academic debate on Africa's ability to grow out of poverty in the 21st century. Although the opinions differ widely on how sustainable current African growth trajectories are, there is a widespread consensus that a fundamental agricultural transformation is key to consolidate current and future welfare gains. This study interprets recent signs of agricultural productivity growth from a long term global historical context, arguing that the combination of present-day developments in information and communication technology, transport infrastructure, demographic growth, urbanization and in macro-economic governance form a fundamental break with African history. This break does not offer any guarantees, but it does raise the probability that Africa will complete a green revolution of its own.