Climate Change and Wheat Production in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

• Global climate change may influence the agricultural production specifically in the tropical regions like Pakistan.
• This study considers annual data from 1960 to 2009 and uses ARDL model to evaluate the impact of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan.
• The results reveal that up till now the climate change has not negatively influenced the wheat production in Pakistan.
• However, on the basis of the results some adaptative measures are proposed to confront any adverse shock to wheat production in Pakistan.

Climate change and its impact on agricultural production is being debated in economic literature in context of different regions. The geographical location of Pakistan is assumed to be vulnerable to climate change. Concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide through human activities has altered the composition of climate. These gases have increased temperature on earth by trapping sun light. This higher temperature in tropical regions may negatively affect the growth process and productivity of wheat. This study aims to look at the impact of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan. The study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the production of wheat in Pakistan. The study considers annual data from 1960 to 2009. On the basis of this historical data the study tries to capture the impact of climate change on wheat production up to now. The results of estimation reveal that global climate change doesn’t influence the wheat production in Pakistan. However, on the basis of the results some appropriate adaptative measures are proposed to confront any adverse shock to wheat production in Pakistan.