Scenarios for a future dairy chain in the Netherlands

The objective of this study was to assess qualitatively, through a participatory approach, the potential for increasing the value added in the Dutch dairy production chain. A workshop involving stakeholders and experts in the Dutch dairy sector developed three scenarios, envisioned according to the strategic interests of the dairy chain in the Netherlands. These scenarios address major trends including changing consumer preferences, increasing pressure for more cost-efficient production, and rising environmental concerns. The scenarios indicate different directions in which the dairy chain in the Netherlands might develop in the next 5 to 20 years. The first scenario envisions the prevalence of producing differentiated raw milk with enhanced health or improved manufacturing properties. The second scenario envisions a dairy chain that is reduced to producing fresher and more individually customized dairy products with improved shelf life. The third scenario envisions ecologically sustainable dairy farming with improved animal welfare. These scenarios show that when improving the dairy sector it is important to consider the entire chain, and hence concerted and co-ordinated actions by the various stakeholders are necessary. Further studies quantifying the consequences of different scenario settings are necessary.