Yield variation of double-rice in response to climate change in Southern China

• Double-rice yield varied nonlinearly and stagnations exhibited in Southern China.
• Mean temperature increased significantly during the growth season in Southern China.
• Historical climate change has positive effects on double-rice production in Southern China.
• Climate variation strongly affected double-rice yield variation in Southern China.
• Double-rice production requires climate-smart farming to adapt climate variation.

Food security is a major concern in China due to increasing nutritional demands, limited resources, and a changing and uncertain climate. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) plays an important role in food security, whilst its yield is greatly influenced by climate change. Thus, it is critical to quantify changes in rice yield, determine the potential climatic conditions affecting yield variation, and identify strategies to counter the effects of climate change. Historical double-rice yields and climatic variables were analyzed in the major double-rice region of Southern China. Yield varied nonlinearly in most provinces, fluctuated more for late-rice, and exhibited stagnation in 1980–2012. During the growth stages, the mean temperature (Tmean) increased significantly at 75.1% of the stations examined (P < 0.05), while high inter-annual variation in precipitation (Prec) and radiation (Rad) decreased for 64.2% and 62.2% of stations. The joint effects of the three climatic variables increased yields of early- and late- rice by 0.51% and 2.83%, respectively. Climatic variation accounted for 40.04% and 29.72% of yield variability for early- and late-rice, respectively. Thus, double-rice production in Southern China is strongly affected by inter-annual climatic variation, requiring resilient farming practices to adapt to climate change and consequently enhance food security.