Quantifying the impact of irrigation on groundwater reserve and crop production – A case study in the North China Plain

• APSIM could well simulate the grain yield and ET for the wheat and maize double cropping system.
• Long term simulation of the grain yield and water use for the double cropping system was conducted under four irrigation strategies.
• Deficit irrigation strategies could reduce the groundwater use significantly, but with some yield penalties.
• The critical stage irrigation strategy (CI) had the maximum irrigation water use efficiency.
• Switching from full irrigation to CI would significantly reduce the depletion of groundwater resources with less yield reduction.

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the main grain production regions in China. However, the annual double cropping system of winter wheat and maize consumed a large amount of groundwater, has led to decline in groundwater table. For conservation of groundwater resource, deficit irrigation is promoted to reduce irrigation water use in recent years. This study combined process-based modeling and experimental data together to evaluate the effects of different irrigation strategies on crop production and groundwater table change for the past three decades in NCP. Data from a six year field trial (2006–2012) under four irrigation schedules and 28 year (1984–2012) field experiment under full irrigation was used to test the agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM) to simulate the responses of winter wheat and maize to different irrigation management. The results showed that APSIM model could well simulate the grain yield and water consumption of the double cropping system under the changing climate and management practices. Simulation results with four irrigation scenarios (critical stage irrigation (CI), minimum irrigation (MI), rainfed (RF) and full irrigation (FI)) from 1984 to 2012 showed that irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) was highest under CI, although changing from FI would lead to reduction in average annual grain yield by 19.5%, 33.7%, and 58.8% under CI, MI and RF, respectively. Even the minimum irrigation strategy (MI—one irrigation for each crop) will result in continuous decline in the groundwater table, implying an inevitable future shift to alternative cropping systems like dryland wheat-maize system, single wheat or maize. Such change will likely result in lower crop productivity and increased inter-annual variability in crop yields, which will demand improved risk management strategies to minimize loss in bad year while maximize return in good years.