Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China

To learn the historical response of cropping system to climate change will benefit the strategy decision of future cropping adaptation. In this paper, we conducted an integrated analysis of the climate records of seventy-two meteorological stations and the records of crop yields over the period 1970–2009 in Northeast China. It was found that over these forty years, the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures during crop growing season increased on average by 0.34 °C, 0.28 °C, 0.43 °C every ten years, respectively. No significant change in the precipitation was found, although the differences between years were large. After de-trending the agronomic technique contributions to the increments of crop yields, the historical warming had led to great annually increments of 16.6 kg ha−1, 15.5 kg ha−1 and 3.2 kg ha−1 in rice, corn and soybean yields, respectively. According to the historical warming level, present cropping boundaries can be theoretically extended northward about 80 km with a prolonged growing period by 10 days compared to the 1970s. Actually, the growth durations of newly approved varieties of rice, corn and soybean have really prolonged by 14.0 days, 7.0 days and 2.7 days since the 1950s, respectively. The actual growing periods of rice and corn have also respectively prolonged by 6 days and 4 days due to the adjustment of sown and harvest dates by the farmer since 1990s. The existing rice cropping region has been extended northward 80 km in the 2006 compared to the 1970. These actual responses were consistent with the theoretical calculation according to the historical warming trends. Our results demonstrate that cropping system owns the potential to progressively and actively adapt to the global warming for high yield through a comprehensive strategy.

► Warming led to annually increments of 16.6 kg ha−1, 15.5 kg ha−1 and 3.2 kg ha−1 in rice, corn and soybean yields, respectively in Northeast China.
► Growth durations of new varieties of rice, corn and soybean have respectively prolonged by 14.0 days, 7.0 days and 2.7 days since the 1950s.
► Actual growing periods of rice and corn have respectively prolonged by 6 days and 4 days since 1990s.
► Existing spatial distribution of rice cropping area has been extended northward about 80 kilometers compared to the 1970.
► Actual responses of cropping system are consistent with the theoretical calculation based on the historical warming level.