Quantification of the cardinal temperatures and thermal time requirement of opium poppy (Papaver somniferum L.) seeds to germinate using non-linear regression models

The response of plant development rate (including germination rate) to temperature might be described as a non-linear function. We compared 3 non-linear regression models (Dent-like, segmented and beta) to describe the germination rate-temperature relationships of opium poppy (Papaver somniferum L.) over 6 constant temperatures to find cardinal temperatures and thermal time required to reach different germination percentiles. Two replicated experiments were performed with the same temperatures. An iterative optimization method was used to calibrate the models and different statistical indices (mean absolute error, coefficient of determination (R2), intercept and slope of the regression equation of predicted vs. observed germination rate) were applied to compare their performance. The segmented was found to be the best model to predict germination rate (R2 = 0.92, MAE = 0.0011 and CV of 1.4–3.6%). Estimated cardinal temperatures were similar for different germination percentiles (P < 0.05). Base on the model outputs, the base, the optimum and the maximum temperatures for germination were estimated as 3.02, 27.36 and 36.31 °C. The thermal time required to reach 50 and 95% germination was 57.27 and 87.55 degree-days, respectively. Model predictions of the time required for seed germination agreed reasonably well with the observed times (MAE = 0.56 day, R2 = 0.887). All model parameters may be readily used in crop simulation models.

► Cardinal temperatures for germination of poppy were estimated as 3.0, 27.3, and 35.2 °C.
► The thermal time required to reach 50 and 95% germination was 57.27 and 87.55 degree-days, respectively.
► The segmented model performed well to quantify opium poppy response to temperature.
► Poppy response to temperature varies by various germination definitions and the loss of dormancy.