کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4525340 1625624 2015 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A transient stochastic weather generator incorporating climate model uncertainty
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ژنراتور هواشناسی تصادفی گذر زمان که عدم اطمینان مدل آب و هوا است
کلمات کلیدی
ژنراتور آب و هوا، تغییر آب و هوا، بارش، فاکتور تغییر عدم قطعیت
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی


• A weather generator is adapted for transient stochastic simulation of future climate.
• Climate model uncertainty is explored by re-sampling the weather generator parameters.
• The statistics of the weather generator are shown to have desirable properties.

Stochastic weather generators (WGs), which provide long synthetic time series of weather variables such as rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET), have found widespread use in water resources modelling. When conditioned upon the changes in climatic statistics (change factors, CFs) predicted by climate models, WGs provide a useful tool for climate impacts assessment and adaption planning. The latest climate modelling exercises have involved large numbers of global and regional climate models integrations, designed to explore the implications of uncertainties in the climate model formulation and parameter settings: so called ‘perturbed physics ensembles’ (PPEs). In this paper we show how these climate model uncertainties can be propagated through to impact studies by testing multiple vectors of CFs, each vector derived from a different sample from a PPE. We combine this with a new methodology to parameterise the projected time-evolution of CFs. We demonstrate how, when conditioned upon these time-dependent CFs, an existing, well validated and widely used WG can be used to generate non-stationary simulations of future climate that are consistent with probabilistic outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble. The WG enables extensive sampling of natural variability and climate model uncertainty, providing the basis for development of robust water resources management strategies in the context of a non-stationary climate.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Advances in Water Resources - Volume 85, November 2015, Pages 14–26
نویسندگان
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