Variability of sea surface temperature in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico

• Multivariate and harmonic analysis were used to analyse SST variability in the Gulf for the past 110 years.
• A ~60-year signal domiated the SST variability in the southern half of the gulf.
• The gulf SST is expected to cool until 2030.
• Extrapolation reliability decreases from the Caribbean to the northern part of the gulf.

The seasonal and interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (SGM) is related to changes in atmospheric forcing, subsurface water inputs, advection and surface currents. However, little is known about temperature variability in the gulf on decadal and multidecadal timescales. Temperature time series (1900–2010) were analysed in 36 2°×2° geographic quadrants that covered the SGM. A cluster analysis was applied to the data for the seasonal cycle and for the annual anomalies in each quadrant to describe SST variability, with a special focus on low frequencies (i.e. >10 years). Temperature anomalies were correlated with the identified cyclic components of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and temperature variability in coastal quadrants of the gulf was described using multivariate analysis and harmonic analysys. There is a latitudinal separation of quadrants regading the seasonal cycle and a longitudinal separation in the total variability that is related to the Loop Current. The highest SST correlations were those related to a ~60-year cycle of the AMO and were found on the Yucatan shelf. The ~60-year variability is present in the entire gulf, but signals with periods shorter than ten years are more evident in the northern part. Extrapolation of the dominant sea surface temperature cycles in coastal areas of the gulf, shows that there will be a cooling event in the next 20 years.