Japan/East Sea model predictability

Model uncertainty due to uncertain input data (initial velocity, winds, and lateral boundary transport) is significant. Level independent relative root mean square error for the whole JES is 0.2-0.5 for uncertain initial velocity field, 0.19 for uncertain surface winds with 0.5 m/s noise, and 0.20 for uncertain lateral transport with 5% noise. The maximum level dependent relative root mean square error reaches 0.6 at the surface for uncertain winds (0.5 m/s noise), and 0.18 at the bottom for uncertain lateral transport (5% noise). Model uncertainty reduces with time for uncertain initial velocity field, oscillates with an evident error growing trend for uncertain winds, and oscillates with no evident error growing trend for uncertain lateral transport. Furthermore, there is no difference using and not using the diagnostic (velocity) initialization and no difference in choosing periods (30-90 days) for diagnostic initialization.