A Bayesian analysis on the anchovy stock (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea

As the most abundant fish species in the Yellow Sea, anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) is decreasing rapidly. Therefore, it is urgent to use a more conservative management approach to protect this declining fish resource. Based on the stock-recruitment (SR) data from 1987 to 2002, the Bayesian method in which uncertainties are treated explicitly is used to assess the SR relationship, the age-structured production model is applied to calculate the biological reference points (BRPs). The Monte Carlo simulation method is performed to predict the expected outcomes in the future for a range of harvest rate. Then, a conservative management approach is recommended.