Ocean circulation drives heterogeneous recruitments and connectivity among coral populations on the North West Shelf of Australia

• An ocean circulation model at 1 km resolution developed for North West Shelf.
• Surface currents on the shelf influenced by the Holloway Current and strong tides.
• A particle tracking model reveals heterogeneous nature of coral larval dispersals.
• Larval dispersals are sensitive to seasonal and intraseasonal wind variations.
• Existing marine parks contain some of the highest levels of self-seeding.

The North West Shelf (NWS) of Australia features extensive and globally significant fringing coral reef ecosystems with high levels of endemism and consequently has received significant conservation efforts in the form of Marine Parks. The shelf circulation on the NWS is dominated by the southwestward-flowing Holloway Current during austral autumn–winter and by the northeastward monsoonal currents during austral summer. Intraseasonal Oscillation and short-term wind variability also influence advection processes on the NWS. These circulation processes are likely to determine demographic inter-dependencies among reef systems in the region, but the extent and spatial variability of the inter-dependence are not well understood. In this study, we used a 3-dimensional, hydrostatic, primitive equations model, to simulate the shelf circulation on the NWS at 1 km horizontal resolution during 2004–2009. We then used a particle tracking model based on the shelf circulation model to simulate larval dispersal in a representative coral species, Acropora millepora, among the 3430 coral reefs on the NWS during its autumn mass spawning. Model results predicted that settling larvae typically reach suitable reef within 10 days of spawning, with a predominantly southwestward tendency of transport. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in larval settlements and the Dampier Archipelago areas seemed to be more isolated from the rest of the NWS. Year-to-year variations of larval dispersals were sensitive to the seasonal and intraseasonal variations of alongshore winds: mass spawning in late March would expose the Dampier Archipelago area to the Holloway Current onset, resulting in it being an occasional source region of larval supply for the rest of the NWS to the southwest; intraseasonal northeastward wind pulses coinciding with the mass larval spawning would bring larvae from coastal regions to the Dampier Archipelago on rare occasions. By aggregating the reefs into 47 subregions, we estimated that the mean rate of self-seeding within the subregions (as a proportion of total supply) was 22% (range from 99% to < 1%). Subregions with high retention (as a proportion of total egg production) were not necessarily those with the highest levels of overall larval settlements. Such high “sink” subregions were also some of the most important “source” subregions. Most of the important source and sink subregions were found to be outside existing marine parks, however, existing marine parks did contain subregions with some of the highest levels of self-seeding and larval retention.