Priceless prices and marine food webs: Long-term patterns of change and fishing impacts in the South Brazil Bight as reflected by the seafood market

The lack of market variables in fishery systems (i.e., prices and quantities) has often been cited as one reason for the particular difficulty of understanding whole marine ecosystem change and its management under a broader ecosystem perspective. This paper shows the results of efforts to tackle this problem in the South Brazil Bight by compiling and analyzing in-depth an unprecedented 40-year database from the region's largest wholesale seafood market, based in the megacity of São Paulo. Fishery landings and market values for the period 1968-2007 were analyzed primarily by updated trophic level classes and multispecies indicators including the (1) marine trophic index (MTI), (2) weighted price, and (3) log relative price index (LRPI) which relates prices and trophic levels. Moreover, an inferential analysis of major seafood category statistical trends in market prices and quantities and their positive and negative correlations was undertaken. In general, these market trends contributed substantially to identifying and clarifying the changes that occurred. Considerations of the behavior of demand, supply and markets are included. In particular, while the MTI did not support a “fishing down the marine food web” hypothesis, other indicators did show the continued scarcity of major high trophic level categories and fisheries target species. Overall, the results indicate that the analysis of fishery landings, or of certain other indicators alone, can mask real changes. Rather, a joint ecological-econometric analysis provides better evidence of the direction of ecosystem pressures and stock health. This method for detecting market changes across the food web may be particularly helpful for systems considered data-poor but where fish market data have been archived. This study further elucidates historical changes and fishing impacts in the South Brazil Bight ecosystem.