A predictive growth model of Aeromonas hydrophila on chicken breasts under various storage temperatures

• SGR and LT of Aeromonas hydrophila at various storage temperatures on chicken breasts.
• Statistical indices of the secondary modeling for the SGR and LT of A. hydrophila.
• Comparison of the observed and predicted SGR and LT values for A. hydrophila.

This study developed the predictive growth model of Aeromonas hydrophila on chicken breasts affected by according to temperature (5, 10, 20, and 30 °C). Growth data were fitted in a modified Gompertz equation. The primary models of SGR and LT showed R2 ≥ 0.968. The specific growth rates (SGRs) at 5, 10, 20, and 30 °C were 0.195, 0.239, 0.360, and 0.500 h−1, respectively. The lag times (LTs) at 5, 10, 20, and 30 °C were 24.04, 19.19, 1.896, and 0.748 h, respectively. Secondary models were determined by nonlinear regression and determined to be: SGR = 0.15014 + 0.00769*T + 0.00013*T2, LT = 37.17741–2.53399*T + 0.04334*T2. The appropriateness of secondary models was validated by statistical measures, including mean squared error (MSE: 0.00037 for SGR, 0.00174 for LT), bias factor (Bf: 1.0005 for SGR, 1.0006 for LT), accuracy factor (Af: 0.9995 for SGR, 0.9994 for LT), and coefficient of determination (R2: 0.999 for SGR, 0.961 for LT). Growth data at five randomized temperatures were predicted using these models, suggesting that these models may be useful to predict the A. hydrophila growth on chicken breasts. Ultimately, the models of A. hydrophila growth could be used for effective monitoring of A. hydrophila contamination on chicken breasts.